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February 28th, 2025
SUMMARY
This report assesses risks that Canadian organic field crop traders, processors and producers face if the United States of America (U.S.) imposes trade tariffs on these products.
Corn has the highest risk of the field crops we looked at. This is because almost the entire crop, which is produced primarily in Ontario and Quebec, is destined for U.S. markets. Winter and soft white spring wheats from the Canadian Prairie are also at high risk due to lack of market diversification and the fact that the U.S. is largely self-sufficient in these crops. Organic barley is also at risk, partly due to lack of other market options, but mainly because the U.S. can feed livestock using corn stocks instead of imported barley. Organic soybean, oats and flax are at intermediate-to-high risk, with soybean exports from Ontario and Quebec of particular concern because of the high value of these exports. Other crops such as western hard red spring wheat, Durum wheat, lentils and peas are more insulated from a potential trade war because most of these exports are shipped to other global destinations.
Most Canadian organic field crops are grown in the Prairie region. This means that Prairie growers will bear the brunt of economic impacts related to trade disruptions. Producers in Quebec and Ontario who grow corn, and to a lesser extent, soybean, will also be negatively impacted. Organic wheat growers in eastern Canada should be insulated from any negative economic impacts.
INTRODUCTION
America has always been a key destination for Canadian products, and this is also true for agricultural crop commodities, including organic crops.
In 2024, unprocessed organic field crop exports from Canada were worth half a billion dollars ($502.4 million). Canada shipped over $154.3 million dollars of bulk organic cereals, oilseeds and pulses to the U.S that year, 30.7% of total tracked organic field crop exports. Organic field crop exports to other countries were $348.1 million during this period. Export values do not include some specialty crops such as mustard or hemp. More significantly, they also do not represent the value of field crops that are processed in Canada and exported as value-added products such as rolled oats, hemp hearts and wheat flour. Canada does not track the specialized harmonized series (HS) codes for these products. Though we don’t know the value of processed organic commodities, we do know that they are often higher than their unprocessed equivalents. For example, U.S.-based Argus Media has estimated that while Canada exported just under 32,000 MT of unprocessed organic beans to the U.S. in 2024, the volume of organic soybean meal was 2.7 times larger (87,090 MT).
Organic farmers already know that growing a diverse mix of crops helps to reduce production risks by buffering the impacts of weather and pests that may conspire to negatively impact some crops but not others. Growing different crops increases the odds that at least some will have a successful growing season. Market diversification is just as key to the overall success of farm businesses.
The goal of this report is to help Canadian organic farmers and exporters understand trade risks associated with field crops in the face of potential U.S. tariffs on imported goods from Canada.. Below are a few concrete examples of steps that businesses can take to reduce trade risk exposure:
Changes to crop rotations: A farmer in Ontario or Quebec planning to seed corn this spring could consider substituting another crop in the rotation or a farmer in the Prairie may opt to seed pulses instead of cereals
Market re-evaluation: Farmers considering selling grain to an exporter that focuses on U.S. sales could assess other marketing options, either domestically or in different parts of the world
Negotiate: If the information in this report indicates that Canadians could have the upper hand for a particular crop, consider negotiating with your importer. For instance, if you are an organic mustard grower in Saskatchewan, you would have the leverage to negotiate that the importer absorb some or all of the added costs resulting from tariffs because the U.S. is almost completely dependent on Canada for this crop.
Even if the current trade dispute with the U.S. vaporizes, which it likely will, crop and market diversification now or in the future will always pay dividends.
METHODOLOGY
This report covers only bulk exports. Canada does not have HS (harmonized series) codes for value-added grain products such as meal, oil, or processed cereals. For some products, such as oats, most of the grain is processed in Canada and exported as a value-added product. Thus, this analysis significantly underestimates the total value of exported organic field crops.
Primary Data Sources and Calculations
Most of the data used to assess risk is shown in Table 1. Data sources and calculations for each column are described below.
U.S. production: Certified Organic Survey. 2021 Summary, United States Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Office, December 2022. 2021 is the last year for which data are available. Data are converted to MT.
U.S. global imports and volume of imports from Canada: United States Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service. Data are provided by year for both value ($USD) and volume (usually in MT) for all U.S. trading partners. The U.S. tracks most of the same imported organic field crops as Canada does for its organic exports although the codes are different.
U.S. use: Use is the amount of a particular field crop that is used in all channels, including food processing, feed, and direct and retail sales. It. is calculated by adding domestic production from the USDA surveys (usually from 2021) to global imports (2024). It excludes carryover from previous years as these data are not available. It is obviously not ideal to base current production on levels from three seasons ago, but it is better than nothing.
Percentage Of U.S. use supplied by U.S. farmers: Production from the USDA surveys (usually from 2021) is divided by use (production plus imports).
Canadian share of U.S. imports: United States Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service. The volume of imports from Canada is divided by the volume of all imports for each field crop (in MT).
Percentage of U.S. use supplied by Canadian Farmers: United States Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service. Canadian imports are divided by U.S. use.
Share of Canadian crop exported to the U.S.: Data from Statistics Canada retrieved from CATSNET Analytics, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. U.S. exports are divided by total exports for each crop.
Trade Risk
This is a somewhat subjective evaluation of the risk that Canadian organic farmers and traders will face for a particular crop if the U.S. applies across-the-board tariffs to Canadian exports. No attempt is made to quantify the magnitude of losses that Canadian business could face; rather, we have combined various positive and negative factors that could determine the severity of the economic impact. There are relevant factors on both sides of the border, including:
Canada
Value of exports
Degree of trade diversification (percentage of crop exported to U.S. of total exports)
Opportunities for market substitution
U.S.
Degree of self-sufficiency (percentage of use supplied by U.S. farmers)
Degree of trade diversification (how many importers? Is any particular supplier dominant?)
Importance of a particular crop in the overall supply chain (how important is the Canadian import? Can the Canadian import be substituted with supply of similar quality and price from a domestic or other international supplier?)
Figure 1 provides a high-level visual summary. Risk level for each crop type is assigned a value from 0 to 10, with 10 being high risk and 0 being almost no risk. The sections that follow provide supporting data and detailed rationales.
RISK ANALYSIS BY CROP
For each of the ten major Canadian organic field crops covered in this report, we start with a visual summary that shows at-a-glance the percentage of total Canadian exports for a particular crop that end up in the U.S., the Canadian share of the U.S.’s total imports for this crop, and the share of the total U.S. use that the Canadian import represents. These are not the only factors that affect our risk analysis, but they are the most critical. The percentage of the total exports provides a key indication of how much Canada needs the U.S. market, while the other two indicators tell us how much the U.S. needs the Canadian product. A low percentage of exports to the U.S. automatically confers a low risk status.
CEREALS
American farmers grow a great deal of organic wheat (431,487 MT in 2021), but only 21% (91,849 MT) of this is the hard red spring (HRS) favoured by bread makers. The shortfall is imported, and in 2024, Canada was the source of 100% of the imports (43,347 MT worth $33.3 million). Assuming production levels in 2024 were similar to 2021, the U.S. is 68% self-sufficient in HRS, relying on Canada for the other 32% of its needs.
HRS is a high-value organic export for Canada, after soybeans and lentils. Exports were worth $100.6 million in 2024, and most of the exports originate in the Prairie region. Organic farmers in Ontario and Quebec do produce some HRS, but most of this is used domestically by local organic mills, not exported. International markets for HRS are diverse, with only a third of exports going in the U.S. (Fig. 2).
Although we know that organic wheat flour processed in Canadian mills is exported to the U.S., volumes and values are unknown because neither Canada or the U.S. track this information. Based on local intelligence, we believe that the majority of Canadian organic wheat flour is used domestically.
Risk Level: 3
Risk to Canadian organic HRS producers in the event of a disruption in U.S. trade is moderate. The premium quality of Canadian HRS and diversity of international markets provides reason for optimism that U.S. markets could be replaced by Asian or even European markets. American dependence on Canada for HRS could also give Canadians some leverage to offload or at least share any potential tariffs with U.S. customers. There is also a growing domestic market for organic flour, especially in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia.
In 2021, U.S. farmers produced 6,577 MT of organic Durum wheat. In 2024, the U.S. imported 4,837 MT from all countries for a total of 11,414 MT. This means that American growers produced just over half of their domestic needs (58%) and relied on Canada for 100% of their imports.
Organic Durum wheat is grown only in Alberta and Saskatchewan. In 2024, 21% (4,837 MT, worth $4.9 million) of Canada’s organic Durum wheat exports, worth $18.7 million, went to the U.S. South Korea is Canada’s largest market for organic Durum, followed by Belgium and the U.S. (Fig. 3).
Risk Level: 1
Few countries can produce the quantity and quality of organic Durum wheat that Canada does. The U.S. lacks sources for Durum outside of Canada while Canada has minimal reliance on the U.S. as a market. These factors will insulate Canadian producers from any perturbations in the U.S. market. Any trade disruption that does occur will be borne almost exclusively by farmers in Saskatchewan and Alberta.
Wheat in this export category includes soft white spring and winter wheats, including the hard red winter that dominates production in Ontario and Quebec. Winter wheat is the most common wheat class grown in the U.S., comprising about 77% of all domestic organic wheat production. The U.S. is largely self-sufficient, producing 333,061 MT in 2021. In 2024, the U.S. imported only 19,387 MT and 96% of imports came from Canada. While this is a big number, it is only 5% of domestic use.
Ninety-four percent of wheat in this category was shipped to the U.S. from Canada (Fig. 4) in 2024, but the export volume in 2024 was small (< 20,000 MT worth $13.3 million) in comparison to either HRS or Durum. Eighty-eight percent of the exports originated in the Prairie provinces, with most of the rest from Ontario. While winter wheats make up a much larger proportion of organic wheat production in Ontario and Quebec, almost all the wheat produced is processed by local mills and used by local bakers to produce cakes and pastry or blended with Prairie wheat to make bread. The amount of processed wheat in these categories that is exported is unknown, but these exports are thought to be minimal.
Risk Level: 8
Exports are not huge, but producers and traders of winter and soft white spring wheats from the Prairie region will be exposed in the event of trade disruption between Canada and U.S. imports of these products are not a necessity to the U.S. This means that Canadians won’t have much leverage in negotiations with U.S. importers. The main saving grace for Canadians is that the U.S. does not have other sources for the nearly 20,000 MT of organic winter and soft white spring wheat that it does import annually.
Most of the organic barley grown in Canada and the U.S. is used as animal feed. There is a small market for organic malting barley, but the organic beer market remains relatively undeveloped compared to the mainstream market.
U.S. farmers produced only 2,041 MT of organic barley in 2021. However, they also do not import a lot – just 5,220 MT in 2024. Corn is the preferred feed grain for organic poultry and hog producers. When the U.S. does need feed barley, Canada is the preferred supplier, providing 98% of all organic barley imports. In turn, Canada ships 70% ($2.7 million, 5,137 MT) of the barley it exports to U.S. markets. Other markets are small in comparison, with China receiving 19% of the remaining organic barley in 2024 (Fig. 5).
Risk Level: 8
Sitting on large surpluses of organic corn from over-production and over-importation over the past few years, means that if a tariff is placed on barley imports, the U.S. will simply stop importing organic barley and rely on stockpiled corn or corn from cheaper destinations for animal feed. However, since organic barley is a small value export crop (< $4 million in 2024), the impact of a trade disruption will be localized, impacting only a small number of organic field crop producers in the Prairie region.
Canada and the U.S. are each other’s largest trading partners when it comes to unprocessed organic oats. U.S. producers grew 51,921 MT of organic oats in 2021 and imported less than this (46,525 MT) in 2024. Assuming U.S. organic produced a similar volume in 2024, this represents just over half (53%) of the domestic use of bulk oats (production plus imports).
Sixty-four percent of U.S. imports came from Canada and sixty-five percent of Canadian exports ($16.7 of $25.5 million) went to the U.S in 2024.
Both countries have only a few other trading partners. In 2024, the U.S. received organic oats from Canada, Sweden and Estonia in addition to a tiny volume from China. The Canadian global trade map is shown in Fig. 6. Japan and South Korea together accounted for most of the remaining value of exports (34%) in 2024.
The challenge with this analysis is that we don’t know the volume and value of exports of processed organic oats because they are not tracked. We know anecdotally that most of Canada’s organic oats are processed domestically and that the U.S. imports more processed than raw oats. Two large companies based in the Prairie region do the bulk of the processing. Some of these processed oats are used in the baking and food processing sectors in Canada, but most of them likely end up in the U.S. This is in part because one of these companies is domiciled in the U.S. and works with its parent company to reach large U.S. organic food processors.
Risk Level: 7
The organic oat supply and processing in the U.S. and Canada is heavily integrated and price increases levied through tariffs would have a huge impact on the organic oat ecosystem. Because the U.S. relies on Canadian organic oats, Canadian traders would have strong bargaining power and may be able to split any added costs with importers.
PULSES
Canada exported $49.8 million worth of organic field peas in 2024. The majority were yellow peas, worth 37.3 million (75%), but some green and marrowfat peas ($12.5 million) were also shipped from the Prairie region. Fifty-nine percent of the value of Canada’s exports last year went to China, 10% to India and 9% to Japan (Fig. 7). China is the globe’s largest organic pea processing country, turning peas into protein powders used by food manufacturers around the globe. The value of Canadian exports to the U.S. was $1.2 million, representing 2% of Canadian exports.
U.S. producers grow roughly 9,000 MT of organic field peas (2021 data) and the country imports a further 14,248 MT of organic yellow peas (2024). Very little of this comes from Canada (1,103 MT; 4.8%).
Risk Level: 1
While the U.S. is not dependent on Canada as a source of organic peas, neither is Canada dependent on the U.S. as an export market. For this reason, we characterize organic peas as being at very low risk if there is a disruption in U.S. trade.
Lentils are an important organic field crop in Canada, particularly to Saskatchewan. Green lentils, including French Green are the most common type grown, followed by red subtypes. Exports of all organic lentils were worth $117.8 million in 2024 with green types making up 60% ($70.9 million), red types 21% ($24.7 million) and all other types making up 19% ($22.1 million). Exports to the U.S. were worth $5.1 million in 2024. This was only 4% of Canadian organic lentil exports.
Canada’s largest organic lentil customers (all types) in 2024 were diversified with Columbia ($22.2 million) in the lead, followed by India ($14.1 million), United Arab Emirates ($11.7 million), Mexico ($7.9 million) and Morocco ($6.6 million). A trade map for green lentils is shown in Fig. 8.
The U.S. is not a big organic lentil producer, nor is it a big user. In 2021, American producers grew only 874 MT. In 2024, the U.S. imported 3,510 MT of which 1,857 MT came from Canada (52.9%). The Canadian share of total U.S. organic lentil use (domestic production plus imports) was 42.4% in 2024.
Risk Level: 1
Since such a small proportion of Canada’s organic lentils end up in the U.S. and because Canada represents a significant share of U.S. organic lentil use, we have assigned a very low risk factor of 1.
OIL SEEDS
Soybeans are Canada’s highest value organic export field crop, worth $128.0 million in 2024. We estimate Canadian organic soybean production to be around 84,368 MT from 108,000 acres (2022 data). Although the U.S. is Canada’s single largest export market, exports are reasonably diversified with a third (32%) going to the U.S to feed organic poultry in eastern U.S. states. The remaining 68% is destined for the food markets of Asian countries such as Japan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan and South Korea (Fig. 9).
The U.S. is a major global producer of organic soybeans, second only to China, producing almost 300,000 MT of its own beans in 2024. The country is also the highest organic soybean user globally, importing nearly as many unprocessed beans as it grows each year (241,671 MT in 2024). In 2024, the U.S. also imported 228,611 MT of organic soybean meal.
Last year, Canada provided only 5.89% (31,888 MT) of the U.S.’s total organic soybean use (domestic production plus imports, excluding carryover), representing13% of imports. Canada is also a major supplier of organic soybean meal to the U.S. with a handful of organic soybean processors in Ontario and Quebec. While Canada does not track processed exports for organic, Argus Media has provided estimates. Last year, Canada exported just under 32,000 MT of unprocessed beans and 2.7 times this (87,090 MT) volume in organic soybean meal. According to Argus, seventy-eight percent of the processed meal came from imports of raw beans from Africa processed in Canada and re-exported to the U.S. as meal.
In addition to Canada, the U.S. depends on nations in west Africa, the Black Sea region, and Argentina to meet domestic requirements. In recent years, U.S. imports have exceeded requirements and beans have been stockpiled.
Risk Level: 7
Trade risk for organic soybeans is deemed to be medium-high. On the positive side, Canada’s export soybean markets are reasonably well diversified and there are signs that Asian countries may increase imports in 2025 after overbuying for the 2024 marketing year. On the other hand, even though the U.S. represents only 32% of Canadian raw bean exports, the value of these exports is high (> $87 million). Furthermore, Canada exports even more processed beans (87,000 MT) and most of the meal is shipped to the U.S.
It is difficult to predict what is going to happen in the U.S. market in 2025. The U.S. market for organic dairy and poultry products seems to be on the upswing after declines between 2021 and 2023. These are the two primary drivers for organic soybean use in the U.S.
Canada’s major competitor – West Africa, which exported more than double the volume of processed and raw beans from Canada to the U.S. last year, is also threatened, not by tariffs, but by a new USDA rule designed to reduce fraud in the organic system. It is unclear whether Baltic countries and Argentina could pick up the slack if the U.S. loses imports from both west Africa and Canada in 2025.
Canada also has organic poultry farms mostly in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec and some hogs in Quebec. This may be a good year for Canadian producers to investigate whether the organic feed mills in those jurisdictions are contracting for more soybean.
Organic flax exports from Canada were worth $11.8 million in 2024, with 80% sent to the U.S. ($9.5 million).
The U.S. is not a big producer, growing only 1,586 MT of organic flax in 2021. It imports over eight times what it produces (13,142 MT in 2024). India was the largest exporter of organic flax to the U.S. in 2024 with Canada in second place with 2,875 MT. This represents 21.9% of imports and 19.5% of total use.
Risk Level: 7
The trade risk for organic flax is medium-high even though this is a reasonably small export crop for Canada. This ranking is due to low market diversification, low share of U.S. imports and availability of other international options for U.S. importers.
Canadian organic flax producers can take heart in the fact that there are potential new markets – both domestic and international for this heart-healthy product and that in 2024, organic flax was scarce.
OTHER FIELD CROPS
Organic corn is the riskiest crop to grow in the event of a trade disruption with the U.S. Almost all of Canada’s corn exports go to the U.S. (99.5%, Fig. 11). The U.S. imports large amounts of organic corn (123,110 MT in 2024), which is more than American producers grow. Canada supplies 43.5% of the imports, but less than a quarter of the total organic corn used in the U.S. According to U.S.-based Argus Media, America is long on organic corn, with plenty of crop in the bins.
The saving grace for organic corn farmers in Ontario and Quebec, is that 42% of the crop that is left after dairy cattle are fed on-farm, is sold domestically for animal feed use – primarily to fuel organic chickens for broiler and egg production. However, farmers that sell organic grain corn to a grain aggregator or exporter, are at high risk of not being able to sell the crop at a break-even price if the U.S. imposes tariffs. Farmers may want to consider whether contracting with a local organic feed mill is an option or consider seeding a different crop this year if tariffs do happen or seem likely to happen.
Risk Level: 9
Should U.S. tariffs be applied only to Canada, Mexico and China as threatened, in addition to India, there other countries where the U.S. could get lower priced replacement products, including from Kazakhstan, Argentina, Russia and Turkey. This, together with the fact that Canada’s export market for organic corn is not well diversified, the threat level is deemed high (9).